Encl. (1) to COMDTINST 3500.3
SPE RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL
The SPE model assesses risks for specific hazards, such as those involved
in launching or recovering a small boat or aircraft, by determining risk as
This model uses this formula:
Risk = Severity x Probability x Exposure
Severity: Severity is an event's potential consequences measured in
terms of degree of damage, injury, or impact on a mission. Should
something go wrong, the results are likely to occur in one of these areas:
Injury or Death
Equipment Damage
Mission Degradation
Reduced Morale
Administrative and/or Disciplinary Actions.
Severity can vary from 1 to 5:
1
=
None or slight
2
=
Minimal
3
=
Significant
4
=
Major
5
=
Catastrophic
Probability: Probability is
the likelihood that the potential consequences will
occur.
Probability can vary from 1 to 5: 1
=
Impossible or remote under any conditions
2
=
Unlikely under normal conditions
3
=
About 50-50
4
=
Greater than 50%
5
=
Very likely to happen
Exposure: Exposure is the amount of time, number of occurrences, number of
people, and/or amount of equipment involved in an event, expressed in time,
proximity, volume, or repetition.
Exposure can vary from 1 to 4:
1 = None or below average
2 = Average
3 = Above average
4 = Great
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