Encl. (1) to COMDTINST 3500.3
By computing the level of risk, we can evaluate its potential impact on mission effectiveness and execution. After
computing the risk values using the formula Risk = S x P x E, we need to control substantial to very high values:
Values
Degree of Risk
Guidance
80-100
Very High
Discontinue, Stop
60-79
High
Correct Immediately
40-59
Substantial
Correction Required
20-39
Possible
Attention Needed
1-19
Slight
Possibly Acceptable
After computing the risk levels for each hazard identified, we can order hazards from the highest to the lowest risk
to focus first on the areas of most concern in conditions of limited resources.
GAR RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL
We can address more general risk concerns, involving planning operations
or reassessing risks as we reach milestones within our plans, by using the
GAR model. A survey of cutter commanding officers identified these
elements as contributing to the majority of risk in their cutter operations:
supervision, planning, crew selection, crew fitness, environment, and event
or evolution complexity. The GAR model incorporates these elements, further
defined below:
Supervision: Supervisory control should consider how qualified a supervisor
is and whether he or she actually is supervising. Even if a person is
qualified to perform a task, supervision, even as simple as verifying the
correctness of a task, further minimizes risk. The higher the risk, the
more a supervisor needs to focus on observing and checking. A supervisor
actively involved in a task (doing something) can be distracted easily and
probably is not an effective safety observer in moderate to high-risk
conditions.
Planning: Preparation and planning should consider how much information is
available, how clear it is, and how much time is available to plan the
evolution or evaluate the situation.
Crew and Watchstander Selection: Crew and watchstander selection should
consider the experience of the persons performing the specific event or
evolution. If individuals are replaced during the event or evolution,
assess the new team members' experience.
Crew and Watchstander Fitness: Crew and watchstander fitness should judge
the team members' physical and mental state, generally a function of how
much rest they have had. Quality of rest should consider how a platform
rides and its habitability, potential sleep length, and any interruptions.
Fatigue normally becomes a factor after 18 hours without rest; however,
lack of quality sleep builds a deficit that worsens the effects of fatigue.
Environment: Environment should consider all factors affecting personnel,
unit, or resource performance, including time of day, lighting, atmospheric
and oceanic conditions, chemical hazards, and proximity to other external
and geographic hazards and barriers, among other factors.
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