Encl (2) to COMDTINST 16010.8
routes as part of the interagency effort to impact the national demand
level.
Target: Increase the percentage of cocaine seized over noncommercial
maritime routes from the FY 95-97 averaged baseline of 8.7% to 13%. By
2002, increase to 18%.
Reduce the smuggler success rate (cocaine entering U.S. via noncommercial
maritime as a percentage of the potential undeterred flow bound via
noncommercial maritime) from the FY 95 baseline of 71% to 50%. By 2002,
reduce to 38%.
Analysis and Evaluation
1998 is a preliminary number. The 1997 and 1998 increases in the seizure rate were the
result of a temporary redeployment of assets from other programs, drug funding
transfers, and improved, coordinated operations. We expect to see another increase to
the FY99 seizure rate due to continued counterdrug supplemental funding. We are working
with ONDCP to conduct a Drug Smuggling Deterrence Study. This study will provide
additional insight into the impact that law enforcement presence has on smuggler
behavior, and will assist in improving counterdrug strategies.
FY00 Key Initiatives
Drug Interdiction Follow-on (OE):
Provides for operating improved sensors, 3 additional patrol aircraft, and testing
the use of non-lethal force from aircraft. These items will improve our ability to
detect smugglers, and stop fleeing fast-boats.
Surface Search Radar Replacement (AC&I); Long Range Search Aircraft Capability (AC&I);
HU-25 Aircraft Avionics Improvements (AC&I); HC- 130 Side Looking Airborne Radar
(AC&I); Comprehensive Law Enforcement (RDT&E): Increases the effectiveness of sensors
and equipment needed to detect track, and apprehend drug smugglers.
Deepwater Capability Replacement Analysis (AC&I): Develops a system of surface, air,
command and control, intelligence, and logistics systems to carry out drug interdiction
in the deepwater area of responsibility. Deepwater is essential to maintaining an
effective drug interdiction presence in the deep Caribbean and Eastern Pacific where
there is limited resupply and refueling opportunities.
Maritime Safety 39
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