Encl (1) to COMDTINST 16010.8
MARITIME SECURITY
routes as part of the interagency effort to reduce the supply below the
national demand level.
FY99 Target: Increase the seizure rate from the FY 95-97 averaged baseline
of 8.7% to 12.5%. Reduce the smuggler success rate from the FY 95 baseline
of 71% to 55%.
Measure: Seizure rate = amount of cocaine seized on noncommercial
maritime routes/flow of cocaine bound via noncommercial maritime.
Measurement Issues: Seizure rate is one of two measures used to manage
Coast Guard activity. It indicates the amount of cocaine seized by the
Coast Guard over noncommercial maritime routes expressed as a percentage
of the amount shipped to the U.S. via noncommercial maritime routes as
determined by ONDCP analysis. This measure is part of the National Drug
Control Strategy.
Measure: Smuggler success rate = amount of cocaine entering U.S. via
noncommercial maritime/potential undeterred flow of cocaine bound via
noncommercial maritime.
Measurement Issues: Baseline data for this measure was improved and
refined since publishing the FY99 Performance Plan. Hence, the
incremental targets shown here for FY99 are different than the targets in
the FY99 Performance Plan. Smuggler success rate captures both the full
impact of deterrence that law enforcement activity has on smuggler
behavior, and the amount of illegal drugs that are seized as a result of
interdiction activity. The smuggler success rate is the amount of cocaine
entering the U.S. via non-commercial vessels, expressed as a percentage of
all the cocaine that would be transported if the Coast Guard was not
present to deter or seize it. Calculating the amount of cocaine that
would be shipped with no Coast Guard deterrence is difficult, but the
Coast Guard employed a 1989 study by Rockwell International: "Measuring
Deterrence - Approach and Methodology" in conjunction with analyses of
historical flow patterns, to establish a baseline potential flow figure.
The Interdiction Committee has recommONDCP has approved an effort to
complete follow-on areas of the Rockwelthe effects of interdiction on
deterrence. Future use of the smuggler success rate measure will be
determined by theresults of the follow-on study.
Cocaine flow is used in the measures because it is the standard agreed to
by the Interagency Community and ONDCP. In dealing with the supply and
demand of cocaine, the Coast Guard seeks to impact the supply/demand
proportion that is shipped via noncommercial maritime routes. The supply
of cocaine (the amount shipped) is obtained from the "Interagency
Assessment of Cocaine Movement" (IACM) published semiannually by ONDCP.
The proportional demand level of cocaine is calculated by taking ONDCP's
official demand figure of 300 metric tons, and multiplying it by the
proportion of the total cocaine flow that is shipped via noncommercial
maritime routes. Based on data in the 13th edition IACM, an increase to a
18.7% seizure rate and a reduction to a 38% smuggler success rate begins
to impact the supply of cocaine transported by noncommercial maritime
routes to a proportional level below the national demand level.
Confidence in the measure is moderate.
PP-50
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