Encl (2) to COMDTINST 16010.8
Illegal Drug Interdiction: Seizure rate is one of two measures used to
manage Coast Guard activity. It indicates the amount of cocaine seized by
the Coast Guard over noncommercial maritime routes expressed as a
percentage of the amount shipped to the U.S. via noncommercial maritime
routes as determined by ONDCP analysis. This measure is part of the
National Drug Control Strategy. Smuggler success rate captures both the
full impact of deterrence that law enforcement activity has on smuggler
behavior, and the amount of illegal drugs that are seized as a result of
interdiction activity. The smuggler success rate is the amount of cocaine
entering the U.S. via non-commercial vessels, expressed as a percentage of
all the cocaine that would be transported if the Coast Guard was not
present to deter or seize it. Cocaine flow is used in the measures
because it is the standard agreed to by the Interagency Community and
ONDCP. In dealing with the supply and demand of cocaine, the Coast Guard
seeks to impact the supply/demand proportion that is shipped via
noncommercial maritime routes. The supply of cocaine (the amount shipped)
is obtained from the "Interagency Assessment of Cocaine Movement" (IACM)
published semiannually by ONDCP. The proportional demand level of cocaine
is calculated by taking ONDCP's official demand figure of 300 metric tons,
and multiplying it by the proportion of the total cocaine flow that is
shipped via noncommercial maritime routes. Based on data in the 13th
edition IACM, an increase to a 18.7% seizure rate and a reduction to a 38%
smuggler success rate begins to impact the supply of cocaine transported
by noncommercial maritime routes to a proportional level below the
national demand level. Confidence in the seizure rate measure is subject
to the difficulty of measuring cocaine smuggling and cocaine flows.
Undocumented Migrant Interdiction: The success rate is an indicator of
the number of migrants entering the U.S. by maritime routes compared
against the number of migrants that would attempt to enter with no
interdiction presence. The potential number of migrants is determined by
Coast Guard intelligence analysts using interagency and other intelligence
sources, particularly Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) data.
Political climates, historical flows, and the latest trends figure into
this calculation. The potential flows are validated against other flow
estimates where available; they are usually found to be more conservative
than the other sources. While this measure captures the Coast Guard's
success in interdicting migrants, it also reflects the significant
deterrent effect that Coast Guard operations have on potential migrants.
The Coast Guard is looking at possible sources for external review of the
potential migrant flow denominator used in the current measure, and the
attempted entry data to be used in a future interdiction measure.
Foreign Fishing Vessel Incursions: Data obtained from the Coast Guard
Planning and Assessment System and validated by program managers. FY97
data affected by reclassification of many Mexican fishing vessels that
were previously identified as illegal fishermen and are now classified as
drug carriers. Confidence in the measure is moderate.
58 Measurement Issues
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