Encl (1) to COMDTINST 16010.8
Goal 4 under Supply Reduction:
Impact target: By 2002 reduce the rate at which illegal drugs successfully
enter the US from the transit and arrival zones by 10% as compared to the
1996 baseline year. By 2007 reduce this rate by 20% against the base year.
Impact Measure: The rate that illegal drugs in the transit and arrival
zones are precluded entry into the US.
The overall appropriations for FY 99 represent an increase over the
President's request. Based on analysis of historical performance, modeling
of our deterrent effect, and assumptions on FY 99 OE and AC&I spending,
drug interdiction performance targets project a 12.5% seizure rate and a
55% smuggler success rate. FY 99 is the second of five years needed to
reach the long-term targets of 18% and 38%. The increase in effectiveness
needed to reach the goal is exponential. AC&I comprises a significant part
of the resources needed to meet the target. These assets will take up to
3 years to be fully implemented into counter drug operations. Thus, the
greatest gains toward the goal target will be achieved in the fourth and
fifth years (2001 and 2002.) The new seizure rate goal also relates to
the existing smuggler success rate measure. The smuggler success rate is
the additive result of the rate of deterrence and the seizure rate. For
example, the FY2000 seizure rate target of 12.5% in conjunction with the
projected target level of deterrence, produce the 55% success rate target.
PP-5
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